What Makes The Current American Government Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures have become a recurring feature of US politics – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity between the two parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp this time as each side – as well as the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.

These are the four ways in which things feel different currently.

1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters has been demanding over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now the party leadership has a chance to show their responsiveness.

Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown early this year. Now he's holding firm.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.

2. For Republicans, they see potential

The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The President himself stated recently that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".

The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.

Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.

Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.

The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "to get political cover".

Simultaneously, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.

The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.

Conversely, experts indicate that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.

Jessica Thomas
Jessica Thomas

A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about innovation and self-improvement, sharing insights from years of experience.