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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Squad Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.